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Allan Lichtman, Distinguished Professor at American University and author of 11 books like “Thirteen Cracks: Repairing American Democracy after Trump”, “Predicting the Next President” and the most outstanding “Keys To The White House”. He has predicted every election correctly since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, nevertheless 2000 and 2024 were the exception.
The method evaluates key factors such as economic performance, the popularity of the ruling party, the absence of scandals, and other political and social aspects. According to the rules of the system, if six or more keys favor the party in power, it retains the presidency; otherwise, victory goes to the opponent.
This Tuesday the 20th, Donald Trump will once again assume the presidency of the United States, marking his return to the White House. Lichtman reflects on how he envisions this second Trump term, his cabinet and the political future of the American country.
Lichtman was born in Brooklyn, New York, and is considered an expert in political history and civil rights. He has testified in more than 100 civil rights cases and has written 11 books. He is currently working on his twelfth project, about which he shares details in this interview.
You correctly predicted 9 of the past 11 elections, but many criticized your miss with Trump in 2024. Do you have plans to update or modify any of the 13 keys for future U.S. elections?
You know, a 42-year record is pretty credible. It’s really not much matched by another forecast. One error does not invalidate a system. And the other error that people have attacked me for is 2000, but I’ve explained I was right about 2000 because it was a stolen election, as I proved in my report to the United States Commission on Civil Rights. It’s still up on their website. You can check it out. Based on the intent of voters, Al Gore should have won Florida going away and the presidency. But clearly, you know, I admitted immediately after the election that I was wrong about 2024. So all those people who think, Oh my God, you know, we’re calling you out for being wrong. I called myself out for being wrong. And of course, as I explained, I don’t have a crystal ball. I’m not Mike Johnson, who claims the Almighty speaks to him. My system is based on history. And as I said many times over the years, patterns of history can be broken. And that’s what happened in 2024.
And as I explained immediately after the election, I’m reevaluating and reconsidering the keys, seeing whether any additional tweaks need to be made. And I’ve got almost four years to do that.
Trump wants to annex Canada, buy Greenland, and regain control of the Panama Canal. I’d like to analyze these one by one. What do you think of Trump’s expansionist ideas for the United States? To me, it resembles Putin.
It’s rather remarkable that Trump should suddenly become an imperialist, because, you know, his appeal has always been, I’m an America-first president. I don’t want to get entangled with foreign countries. I’m suspicious even of our most important alliance, NATO.
And now all of a sudden, he wants to recreate the manifest destiny of the 19th and early 20th centuries and create, in essence, an American empire. It’s an extraordinary, you know, about-face on the part of Donald Trump. And it’s totally impractical. Like so much of what Donald Trump says, it’s bluster. He’s not going to buy Greenland. That’s not going to happen.
Canada is not going to become the 51st state, although I have a live show every Tuesday and Thursday at 9 p.m. Eastern time with my son at Allan Lichtman YouTube. You can access it. And I said in my show, I’m all for that. Let’s annex Canada. Get two liberal senators and dozens of liberal House members, because there are 40 million people. Canada is going to get a lot of members of the U.S. House. So sure, you want to annex Canada? Throw me in that briar bush. But the whole point is, this is a lot of bluster on the part of Donald Trump. Canada is not going to become the 51st state. He’s not going to buy Greenland. He’s not going to arrest the Panama Canal back from Panama. That was established by treaty ratified by the United States Senate. So once again, we’re seeing Trump posing with ideas that might be appealing to his base but have no basis in reality.
Do you think Trump could succeed in buying Greenland? What could we expect if Denmark refuses to sell? A referendum on self-determination?
Greenland has made it clear they’re not for sale. You’re not going to buy Greenland.
Well, that’s it for now. But in the future, the things can…
Anything can happen, but I’d be shocked if Greenland was willing to give up its independence. And, you know, of course, as with Trump, he hasn’t made crystal clear what it would mean to buy Greenland. Would it become the 51st state? You know, with only, what, you know, I don’t know, 50,000, 60,000 inhabitants. And if so, it would send two senators to the United States Senate, likely progressives or liberals, and one member of Congress. If it doesn’t become a state, then what is its status? Is it, you know, a dependent province? Does it have the status of Puerto Rico, where all Greenlanders are U.S. citizens, even though it’s not a state? Who knows? You know, Trump hasn’t spelled any of that out. And until you do, it remains nothing more than a pipe dream.
So according to you, these plans and ideas won’t happen.
Look, the great British prime minister, the late great Benjamin Disraeli, once said, Finality is not a word we use in politics. So I never want to say never, but let me say, it is incredibly unlikely that any of this will come about.
In 2006, you ran for senator from Maryland. Would you consider running for public office again in the future?
Absolutely not! First of all, I’m 77. You know, I think I’m past the age where I have that kind of political ambition. Plus, it was one of the biggest mistakes I ever made. As you can see, I’m very comfortable talking about issues and ideas. I wasn’t a very good politician because I was never really comfortable talking about myself and being a self-promoter. That just wasn’t my style. I also was running against the grain of the Democratic Party, which I realize gets you nowhere in the state of Maryland because it is so tied up in partisan politics.
How do you see the possibility of Trump finishing his term or not, taking into account his health and the challenges he faces due to his age?
I’m not a medical doctor, so I can’t give a medical diagnosis. I’m a different kind of doctor, PhD, in history, but certainly that’s an issue. You know, he is a little bit even older than me, and he is not in the greatest of shape. He doesn’t have the greatest diet. So, while I’m not giving an informed opinion one way or another, you know, clearly for someone of that age who has issues, it’s something to keep an eye on.
Well, nobody who eats McDonald’s could live 100 years.
Yes, right. And he’s never really released any details of his medical records either. You know, they’ve blasted the Democrats for concealing Biden’s health.
Whether that’s true or not, we may never know, but certainly they have not been forthcoming with details about Donald Trump’s health.
How do you view the political future of JD Vance?
I think he has a very bright future within the Republican Party. You know, you often hear talks about the MAGA Republicans versus the mainstream Republicans. That’s old news. The Republican Party is the MAGA Party. The so-called mainstream Republicans are pretty much gone. The few that are left, you know, are pretty much insignificant. And J.D. Vance is clearly the heir apparent to the MAGA Republican Party. If Donald Trump were to blip out tomorrow, very little would change within the Republican Party. Obviously, he is an extraordinary personality, love him or hate him, but in terms of what the party stands for, it’s not dependent on Trump.
How do you envision the U.S. political landscape for the 2028 elections?
Well, it’s way too early. Yeah, I know. To envision the 2028 election. But, you know, unless Trump does something extraordinary to alter the institution of our democracy, it’s going to be an open seat election. Trump cannot run again under the Constitution.
Yeah. Open seat elections are very difficult for the party holding power, as we saw in 2016 or 2008. And in a sense, 2024 was an open seat because the incumbent was pushed out from running. So, 2028 does offer a real opportunity for Democrats to regain power. But, you know, they really need to develop much better messaging. You know, Joe Biden has achieved more domestic accomplishments than any president since the 1960s. The CHIPS bill, the stimulus bill, the infrastructure bill, the burn pits bill, the tax and climate change bill, the bill to reduce drug prices. It’s an extraordinary set of accomplishments, but no one knows about it because the Democrats are so deficient when it comes to messaging. They need to learn how to develop a simple, compelling message.
Ironically, the best message I heard from the Democrats occurred too late after the election. It was a couple of days ago in Joe Biden’s farewell address when finally the Democrats took on the power of the very rich, the oligarchs in America, and began to develop a simple, compelling message appealing to middle- and working-class Americans. They need to build on that.
What do you think will happen to Kamala Harris’s political future? Some Democrats are disappointed with her performance and results.
You know, her political future is uncertain. A lot of Democrats, of course, you know, after the fact, they love to point fingers; they were, after the fact, unhappy with her performance. You know, that’s inevitable with a losing candidate. But she certainly, you know, is still relatively young, about 60. I suspect she will run again in 2028 for the Democratic nomination but is by no means assured of gaining that nomination. I think it will be a wide-open contest.
Do you think Trump will end the war in Ukraine this Tuesday? He claimed he could end it within 24 hours. How do you think this issue will be handled?
That’s not going to happen. And I don’t think he’s going to repeat, you know, that promise that he can’t fulfill. It’s going to be a very difficult and lengthy process to end the war, if at all. It’s not clear, you know, that the two sides can in fact be brought together in some satisfactory way. I don’t think the war in Ukraine specifically is going to figure very large in the inauguration. Inaugurations are usually very thematic.
Do you believe we are close to a third world war?
I don’t think we’re heading to a third world war. That would be devastating for the entire world. There would be no winner in a nuclear war. As experts in the field have said, if we have a nuclear war and if we do have World War III among the great powers, that’s a real possibility. All we’re going to do after the war is see how high the rubble is going to bounce.
I’m not going to prophesy about a third world war. That’s something we shouldn’t be doing at this point. Yes, there are major diplomatic challenges in the Middle East, the Far East, and Ukraine, but that’s true of every presidential administration. Every administration comes in with all kinds of challenges, and it remains to be seen how effectively Trump deals with these challenges.
Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, will be the first Latino Secretary of State. How do you think this new administration will address Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Latin America as a whole?
Well, I think Marco Rubio is probably the best appointee of the many that Donald Trump has made. Most of them lack qualifications or even pose dangers to the United States, like the nominees for defense secretary and national intelligence director. But Marco Rubio is, you know, whatever you may think of his policies. And, you know, obviously liberals have different ideas. He’s certainly qualified for the position, and I think he will push for a more cooperative arrangement with Latin America than Trump may be willing to accede to. So we may see some back and forth between Trump and Rubio on that policy.
What are your thoughts on Trump’s cabinet nominees?
I think they’re very dangerous. You know, Joe Biden warned about an oligarchy exercising undue power over American life and society. And I think he’s absolutely right.
And we saw the enormous influence of Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, who’s richer than most nations of the world. We saw how much influence he was able to wield. And Trump’s cabinet is filled with billionaires whose interest is making themselves and their friends richer, not helping out the middle class or the working class. And also many of his nominees, like I gave you some examples, lack qualifications and may be taking the country in very dangerous directions.
Do you consider Trump an anomaly in U.S. history?
Trump is very much of an anomaly in US history. We’ve never before had a president who was a convicted felon, 34 felony counts, who has been indicted for very serious crimes of trying to impede the peaceful transfer of power and undermine our national security.
Never had a president who has been found civilly liable for sexually abusing, defaming, and hurting a woman. Never had a president who has been found civilly to have committed massive financial fraud. And we’ve never had a president so inclined to authoritarianism as Donald Trump. So yes, I do think he is very much of an anomaly. But as I said, he is now typical of what is represented within the Republican Party.
After Trump and all his fellows, who can benefit really from this administration?
Oh, it’s clear who’s going to benefit: his rich friends. You know, they want to extend and expand the tax cuts. And we know those tax cuts specifically benefit corporations and the wealthy. There are some benefits to the middle class, but overwhelmingly, the benefits go to the wealthy and the corporations. Plus, he’s proposing deregulation of business regulations, which, in essence, is going to open the door for businesses to do whatever they need to do to expand their profits and not worry about running afoul of federal regulators. He is going to open up new lands and opportunities for drilling and mining.
So absolutely, the benefits are going to flow to corporations and to the rich. And of course, you know, we heard from Scott Besant, you know, they’ve recreated the old trickle-down theory. You know, if we empower and invigorate and incentivize entrepreneurs, those benefits are going to trickle down to the middle and the working class.
And of course, that hasn’t worked. We now have, as Biden has stressed, inequalities in wealth and income that are today equal to or greater than in 1929 on the eve of the Great Depression.
Now, I would like to ask you about your future plans. Do you have any plans to write a new book?
Yes, I have a new book coming out. It’s coming out this year with the University of Notre Dame Press, a very prestigious organization, and it’s called Conservative at the Core: A New History of American Conservatism. And it goes into great detail to explain what modern conservatism actually represents. It points out that Trump did not hijack or undermine conservatism but is the natural culmination of the American conservative movement.
Any words to add, maybe for the Latin American public?
Yes, I would again stress, you know, our show is at 9 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time every Tuesday and Thursday at Allen Lichtman YouTube. And we do, you know, I’m not a Latin American expert, but we do talk about Latin America and the relationship between the United States and Latin America. That does come up on our show. And, you know, I’ve been to many countries in Latin America.
I was just recently in Brazil. I love the people. I love the culture. I love the food. And so I’m happy to talk more about it. And I wish your audience all the best. I have been to Peru, and I hiked to Machu Picchu, the high Andes. And it was one of the extraordinary experiences of my life. I also went to the Amazon jungle and to some of the cities as well. And I loved my experience in Peru.
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